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United States Grand Prix Predictions

Round 18 · Circuit of the Americas · 23–25 October 2026
Updated 12 October · after Singapore GP

Kimi Antonelli leads the championship by 102 points, but Max Verstappen arrives after victories in Sepang and Singapore. COTA rewards confidence through its fast first sector and traction out of the final complex.

Pole favourite
Verstappen has the form and one-lap edge

He took pole and won in Singapore, then made it three Grand Prix wins in four rounds. Red Bull’s recent momentum makes him the benchmark for Austin.

Pick: Max Verstappen, narrowly ahead of Antonelli and Leclerc.

Grand Prix favourite
Mercedes remains the reliable Sunday threat

Antonelli’s 340 points reflect season-long consistency, while Ferrari’s Singapore pace gives the leaders a real rival. COTA should reward a balanced car over a full stint.

Pick: Max Verstappen, ahead of Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc.

Qualifying prediction
1
Max Verstappen
Red Bull Racing
Form pick
2
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
High
3
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
High
4
George Russell
Mercedes
Threat
Race prediction
1
Max Verstappen
Red Bull Racing
Form pick
2
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
High
3
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
High
4
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari
Solid
What could change it

Turn 1 and track limits

The steep opening braking zone and wide runoff can turn a front-row fight into a strategy race immediately. Qualifying execution matters at COTA.

Ferrari’s upward trend

Leclerc was second in Singapore and Ferrari now sits second in the constructors’ standings. Clean tyre management could put either red car in the win fight.

Austin conditions

Temperature, wind and tyre degradation can vary sharply across the weekend. Practice running will determine whether Red Bull or Mercedes has the better long-run answer.

These are informed manual predictions, not official results. They use post-Singapore standings, recent form and COTA characteristics; practice pace, weather and any late penalties can materially change the call.